Looking at all the initiatives already taken by OPEC countries, and Oil&Gas companies I wonder when Oil Price will rise. It has become pretty obvious that price of Oil will rise, the question is when? The Price of the barrel is around $35 today, it looks like an anomaly when looking back to the price of the barrel at $150 six months ago. Probably the price of the barrel was also abnormally high mid 2008.
I would expect a "reversion" to the mean of crude price before the end of the year to prices close to the $70. However looking at the Demand & Supply components nothing is more uncertain.
At this moment EIA expects non-OPEC countries to rise their production at a higher level ( +0.8 mbpd) in 2009 than the OPEC countries which will lower their level of production (-0.65 mbpd). Meaning that the supply would increase in 2009.
At the same time looking at the Demand side of the equation, Demand continues to drop, and is forecasted to be reduced by at least 0.2% next year.
So what? All indicates that price will continue to decrease until will met an equilibirum in the market... Therefore would we see lower price for crude flirting with the $20 before converging to the $70?
This approach contrasts with the very recent news and the arguemnts provided in the Coming Economic Collapse, When Oil Cost $200 a barrel.
